TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Additional negative pieces of the puzzle

A week ago I wrote: “Now the standard line is being challenged which if crossed and not quickly punctured is a positive piece of the puzzle. However, it is not until the recent short-term top at 67225 is crossed that we get an indication that the break formation is over and a new positive trend leg is likely about to begin.”

The past week started with a failed attempt to take out the standard line and by the end of the week the level was once again punctured after Thursday's positive close. In total, Bitcoin fell by 4.5 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 44 percent. The month of May is so far noted as a doji and the last week I interpret as a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October. The trend phase indicator has now fallen into the equilibrium oscillation zone, which means we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals. If the zone is punctured, the risk of a long-term top forming increases significantly, which is not my main concern.

Volume balance is negative since April 25.

MACD is noted in sell but there is no momentum for a decline. This means that if the divergence towards the signal line increases, the risk of a decline towards the lower support level in the falling wedge around 55000 increases.

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Summary: Bitcoin has been clinging to the standard line for the past week, but despite two attempts has not managed to regain the level, which is a negative piece of the puzzle. If the standard line is retaken and not immediately punctured, there is a good chance that we have seen the next positive trend leg begin. However, it is not until the last short-term top at 67225 is crossed that we will get an indication that the pause formation and decline is over and confirmed that a new positive trend leg has begun. If it instead turns out that 56500 gives way without being quickly retaken, there is a high risk that the price needs to go down towards the 200-day average around 50000 to find enough buyers to trigger a new upward phase. Until proven otherwise, my main track is that Bitcoin is charging to once again break out north but the undertone is increasingly negative.

Resistance: 61885 / 65500 / 66000 / 67225 / 71790
Support: 60150-59200 / 57000 / 52900

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 18-.

Ethereum: If the textbook is followed, more challenges are in the pipeline

A week ago I wrote: “A first significant and positive piece of the puzzle would be a crossing of the standard line with a strong daily close.”

This past week started with a test of the standard line but buyers faltered this time too. The price has since descended to the rising support line that connects the bottoms since the end of October. In the weekly chart, the entire movement of the past week was noted within the previous week. In total, Ethereum fell by 6.2 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 28 percent and the decline since the peak in mid-March is now written to 29 percent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a reversal down from the extremely high level risked leading to a significant top, now we know that this was the case. The indicator is now quoted in the zone where we are asked to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since March 30.

MACD gave a sell signal on May 10, but so far the divergence from the signal line is not very clear. If, on the other hand, the indicator pulls down with clarity, the risk increases that the price expansion will take Ethereum down towards primarily MA-200.

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Summary: The price is now oversold around the support area around 2900-2800 and that should lead to an upside bounce. If it instead leads to a puncture of the support, the aim is set towards primarily the 200-day average that meets up at 2700. Now I want to see the standard line taken out and held and the falling resistance line connecting the March and April highs crossed to indicate that the next positive trend leg has begun. If the expansion goes south and the MA-200 is not respected, there is a high risk of a decline towards the 2200 level in the first place. There is currently little negative undertone in the short to medium term.

Resistance: 3060 / 3180-3220 / 3355 / 3620
Support: 3075-3065 / 3000 / 2865-2850 / 2815-2780

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 16-.

Binance BNB: Still caught within the March range

A week ago I wrote: “Right now there is a high risk of choppy moves with crossovers when any of the trading range's limits are tested.”

BNB continues to be quoted inside the March candle and just like the previous week, this one was also a choppy affair that bounced between 606 and 574 dollars. The total gain was 1.1 percent, which means that the gain since the beginning of the year is now written at 90 percent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend-phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are urged to act with positive trend-following strategies but has fallen down from the extremely high level and also punctured the confirmation level. It is therefore important that the rate of decline of the indicator slows down so as not to risk it being a long-term “top warning”.

The volume balance is neutral.

The MACD is completely flat and lacks momentum for either up or down, around the zero zone.

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Summary: Price is still trapped by the rank that the March candles mark at 645 and 496. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction. The risk remains high of choppy moves with sharp reversals when any of the trading range's constraints are tested. If it turns out that the March low at 496 gives way without being quickly recaptured, it sets the sights initially on 425. A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a crossing of the March high at 645. If, on the other hand, the standard line at 571 is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a great risk that selling pressure down towards the 500 level will begin.

Resistance: 595-605 / 618 / 635 / 645 / 675
Support: 583 / 570 / 540 / 510-490

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 57+.

Solana: Caught in trading range with slightly positive undertone

A week ago I wrote: “I will interpret a strong and clear daily close above the standard line as the first positive piece of the puzzle, but it is only if the recent short-term top from April 23 at 160 is taken out that the conditions for a new positive trend are in place.”

The past week started with a crossing of the standard line and despite some challenges with small choppy movements, the price remains above the level. In total, the Solana rose by a marginal 0.8 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 45 percent and the decline since the peak on March 18 at 210 is now noted at 29 percent. In the weekly chart, the week developed into a new doji (getting boring).

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since early November. The trend phase indicator is quoted since April 29 in the zone where we are advised to act with equilibrium ranging strategies and be prepared for choppy trading.

The volume balance is neutral.

The MACD left on May 4 a positive rather low cross that is still in play and I interpret that positively. The zero zone is now being challenged and a crossing of this is usually another indication of a strengthening sentiment.

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Summary: The price is still floundering in the trading range that has captured the index for a few weeks now, as the trend phase indicator has warned. I will interpret a strong and clear daily close above the May high at 160 as the first positive piece of the puzzle. If, on the other hand, the price fails to retake the 160 level and instead turns down and punctures 139 where the standard line is found, without quickly retaking the level, the low of the trading range at 122 will be tested and it is the last stop before the 200-day average around 110.

Resistance: 155.70 / 159.20 / 163.10
Support: 139.30 / 129.00 / 121.50-118.70 / 110.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 35-.

XRP: Fluctuating between MA-200 and April lows

A week ago I wrote: “On the upside, the standard line, MA-100/MA-50 and MA-200 are the closest. On the downside, it is the zone between 0.50-0.43 that should preferably not be punctured as it risks increasing selling pressure.”

The past week started with a rise to the 50-day average but the fun quickly ended there. The price has since fallen back and is now back below the standard line and both the short and long averages. XRP fell by 4.5 percent last week, which means that this year's decline is now 18 percent. Since the peak on March 11, XRP has fallen by 35 percent. The price is still trapped inside the April candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope. The trend phase indicator is noted since late April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is negative since April 13.

The MACD effected a positive cross on April 22 that is still in play. However, the momentum has slowed down and this means that a sell signal is not very far away.

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Summary: XRP remains stuck in a major consolidation between 0.78 and 0.43. Since mid-April, however, the price has been oscillating in an increasingly tight range just below the 200-day average which is the result of uncertainty. On the upside, the standard line at 0.52 and the MA-50 at 0.55 are the closest to be followed by the MA-200 at 0.58. On the downside, the zone between 0.50-0.43 is the one that should preferably not be punctured as it risks increasing selling pressure. As long as none of the support or resistance levels for the consolidation are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Resistance: 0.54-0.56 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.50 / 0.47 / 0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 18+.

Cardano: Contraction before the next trend leg

A week ago, I wrote: “We are now seeing signs that the momentum of decline is slowing. A flatter rate of decline is positive, but we need the last short-term top at 0.52 to be passed to talk about a bottom formation.”

The past week was choppy with some downward movement towards the support at 0.44 that is currently being tested. In total, Cardano fell 4.7 percent last week, which means that this year's decline is now written to 26 percent. Since the peak on March 14, the decline is now 46 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal was formed.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still slightly upward even though the price is now noted below the level. I wrote in early March that a decline for the trend phase indicator from the extremely high level risked building up a significant top if the indicator turned down below the confirmation level, which is exactly what happened. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline but looks to be heading upwards.

The volume balance is negative since April 12.

The MACD made a positive cross on April 22 and has been rising since then, but not very clearly, which is an indication that the expansion can take place both upwards and downwards.

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Summary: Cardano, since the 20-day moving average was punctured on March 16, has not managed to close above this on a single day since then. It will therefore be interesting to see if the buyers manage to take out the level on this attempt or if, like the last four attempts, it leads to another new lower low. The momentum of decline has at least temporarily slowed. A flatter rate of decline is positive, but it requires the recent short-term top at 0.52 to be passed to speak of a bottom formation. If the April low at 0.41 gives way without being quickly retaken, there is a high risk of increasing selling pressure and a decline towards 0.34 to start with.

Resistance: 0.47-0.52 / 0.54 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 79-.

Avalanche: Caught in a trading range

A week ago I wrote: “Now approaching the standard line not crossed since the April 1 puncture. If the latest short-term top from April 24 at 39.9 is taken out, it indicates an upside potential in the short term, based on the double-bottom formation that was effected then, to the 50 level. If the price instead turns down before 39.9 is taken out, there is a high risk of increasing selling pressure down towards the 30 level.”

The past week started with a failed attempt to take out the standard line and the price subsequently fell back below the 200-day average. In total, Avalanche fell by 10.0 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 13 percent and since the peak on March 18, the price has fallen by 49 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal was noted which is still noted inside the April candle.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day moving average to point out is rising since early December but the price is now below the level. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be on the way and now we know that it was. The indicator is now noted in the negative zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left on April 29 a positive cross that is still in play but in recent days the momentum has slowed down and it is not far to a sell signal.

Volume balance is negative since April 13.

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Summary: After the week opened with a turtle soup of decline, the price is now noted below the 200-day average. As long as the price does not take out the last week's high at 40.0 or the April low at 29.35, there is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. A weak close below the 30 level sets the target for the accumulation zone from the end of November around 25-19 and if that level also gives way, we will find the next plateau down towards the October low, but I will return to that if it becomes relevant. A strong close above the trading range high indicates that the next positive trend leg has begun.

Resistance: 35.50 / 38.70 / 39.90-40.10
Support: 33.10-32.90 / 30.55 / 30.00 / 29.40

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 10-.

Polkadot: Continuing to scurry around in the trading rank under MA-200

A week ago I wrote: “Polkadot is trapped in a range between 7.6 and 5.8 and as long as none of these levels are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.”

The past week started with a failed attempt to break up through the standard line and now the price is quoted below the level captured in the April monthly range. In total, Polkadot fell by 5.9 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 18 percent and the decline since the peak on March 14 now amounts to 44 percent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point to is upward and price is now testing the strength of the bulls. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be on the way and now we know that's exactly what happened. The indicator is now noted in the zone where we are warned that there is an imminent risk of further decline.

The volume balance is negative since the beginning of April.

The MACD effected a positive cross on April 23 which is still in play. However, the upward momentum did not materialize and now a sell signal is approaching.

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Summary: Polkadot is trapped in a range between 7.6 and 5.8 and unless one of these levels is taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will set the direction for the near future. If the price continues to record ever lower highs, there is a great risk that the April low at 5.80 will not hold and it risks triggering a challenging selling pressure, which I will return to in that case. If, on the other hand, 7.6 is passed without being quickly punctured, we will set our sights on the 9 level.

Resistance: 6.80-7.20 / 7.45 / 7.60 / 7.90-8.10 / 9.00
Support: 6.60-6.50 / 6.30 / 6.10-5.80 / 4.80 /

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 7-.

Uniswap: Stuck in a trading range below MA-200

A week ago I wrote: “As long as the price is quoted between 8.40 and 5.90, there is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. Now I want to see the falling resistance line and the standard line retaken without being quickly punctured.”

The past week was, just as the trend phase indicator warned, a choppy affair. The price fluctuated between 7.95 and 7.00, well within the previous week's limits. In total, Uniswap fell by 5.7 percent, which means that this year's rise has now turned into a decline of 1.6 percent. The decline since the peak on March 6 is now written to a full 58 percent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly, slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since April 16.  

The MACD left on April 23 a positive cross which is still in play but the recent contraction has caused the momentum to wane. It is now close until the cross is eliminated and replaced by a sell signal.

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Summary: The price is noted below both the standard line and the 200-day average which is negative. So far, however, the support area at 6.0, which the monthly candlestick for April marks, is being respected. As long as the price is quoted between 8.40 and 5.90, there is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. Now I want to see both the falling resistance line and the MA-200 retaken without being quickly punctured for me to become positive in the short term. Vollan is extremely low around the levels we saw just before Christmas. When price picks up from lows, there are often powerful moves and now the hope is that it will be north.

Resistance: 7.45 / 7.70-8.35 / 8.80-9.20 / 9.60
Support: 7.00-6.80 / 6.55 / 5.90-5.40

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 9-.