A market commentary by Johanna Belitz, Head of Nordics at crypto issuer Valour

‍
The year 2026 begins for the crypto market in an environment that differs markedly from the exceptional liquidity conditions of previous cycles. The main drivers are no longer euphoric retail investors, but an increasingly institutionalised market that reacts sensitively to global macro indicators. And it is precisely
these factors that will remain the key challenge for crypto assets in the coming year: central banks are easing their monetary policy only gradually, the US dollar remains firm, and global liquidity continues to trickle rather than flow in large waves.
‍

As a classic high-beta asset that reacts more sharply to changing market conditions, Bitcoin benefits from any improvement in financial conditions. However, the strong tailwind of a new global liquidity expansion is unlikely to materialise in the near term. This constellation makes 2026 a pivotal year for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire digital asset market.
‍

Macro Sets the Tone for Bitcoin & Co.
Crypto remains at the mercy of global liquidity dynamics. The key drivers of market movements in 2026 will be real yields, the strength of the US dollar, international liquidity indicators, and classic economic barometers such as purchasing managers’ indices. Inflation expectations and credit spreads will also move into sharper focus, as they determine how quickly – or slowly – global financing conditions may ease. Falling real yields and a weaker dollar would be positive impulses for Bitcoin and its peers; these were precisely the triggers that pushed cryptocurrencies to new highs in past cycles.

‍
Investors should also monitor liquidity shifts in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the Treasury General Account (TGA), and reverse-repo markets. Changes often feed into the crypto market with a delay of one to three months. The most important indicator, however, remains inflation. As long as price pressures are not truly under control, central banks’ room for manoeuvre will remain limited. As a result, investors can expect supportive but far from euphoric conditions. These may stabilise the market but will not generate explosive momentum like that seen in 2020.

‍
Institutional Investors: Risk on, But Carefully Measured
Institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic heading into 2026. They are willing to take risks, though in a highly selective manner. The focus is on Bitcoin, while broad altcoin exposure continues to lose relevance. Instead, capital flows primarily into regulated structures such as US spot ETFs and selected layer-1 blockchains. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana form the core of many professional strategies. The trend is unmistakable: institutions seek liquidity, regulatory clarity, and robust market infrastructure — attributes that are mainly found in the large, established crypto assets. Additional clarity and further momentum may come from a potential US Market Structure Bill, currently under discussion.

‍
Among other things, the bill proposes consolidating the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Despite maturing significantly in recent years, the market is far from immune. On the negative side, a renewed surge in the US dollar, setbacks in inflation, the bursting of a potential AI bubble, substantial ETF outflows, or the possibility that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) might begin selling holdings openly could weigh heavily on the market. Geopolitical tensions or political shifts in the US — particularly regarding the new administration’s stance on digital assets — also pose material downside risks.
‍

ETFs and Treasuries Remain Key Catalysts
2026 is shaping up to be the year in which ETF flows become the dominant force in price formation. The integration of institutional capital through regulated products such as ETFs and ETPs concentrates liquidity in the upper tier of the market and dampens index-level volatility. This means the direction of capital flows — in or out — now matters more than ever. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), companies holding digital assets, remain another key access channel, especially for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The interplay between ETF and DAT flows will become as important as macro data in determining the performance of BTC and
ETH. This shift is creating a market structure in which the largest assets become more stable, while second-tier altcoins remain more volatile and heavily dependent on retail sentiment.
‍

These developments suggest that Bitcoin is likely to maintain or even expand its dominance next year. The reason is not a lack of innovation from competing projects, but the structural requirements of institutional investors: regulatory certainty, liquidity, and straightforward narratives. Altcoins may still experience impressive cycles, but these depend heavily on retail liquidity and a much looser global monetary environment. As long as monetary easing
remains incremental, isolated thematic trends — such as stablecoin projects, tokenised RWAs, or infrastructure tokens — are more likely to drive selective price spikes.
‍

Regulation: A Defining Moment for the Years Ahead
From a regulatory perspective, 2026 will be a decisive year. In the United States, key issues include stablecoin legislation, the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and the establishment of a clear framework for trading platforms. Another crucial question is how Ethereum will be classified in the context of staking and securities law. In the EU, the next implementation phases of MiCA will shape the market infrastructure, with MiCA licensing becoming mandatory for crypto-asset service providers once the transition period expires on 30 June 2026.
‍

Particularly relevant is the new regime for stablecoins: the enforcement of e-money rules, restrictions on non-European stablecoins in certain market segments, and higher capital requirements for issuers will directly affect which providers can operate within the EU and how liquid on- and off-ramps will be. These factors will determine how efficiently capital can flow into the European crypto market and ultimately whether the EU strengthens or weakens its global position.
‍

The Environment Is Not Easier — But It Is More Predictable
Crypto remains a dynamic market, but the era of abundant liquidity is over for now. Bitcoin and Ethereum increasingly benefit from structural capital inflows, rising regulatory clarity, and global investor interest that is more closely aligned with fundamentals. Their role as digital base assets will solidify in the coming year. For altcoins, by contrast, the market regime becomes considerably tougher. Short-term hype is no longer sufficient to attract sustainable capital. Relevance must be earned through clear use cases and resilient cash flows. Only projects that solve real problems or achieve infrastructural importance will
endure in an increasingly ETF-driven market.
‍

Thus, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of transition — away from euphoric cycles toward a more mature, transparent, and macro-driven environment. The winners of this shift will be the protocols and companies that combine resilience, regulatory compliance, and economic viability. For investors, this creates an environment that may not be easier, but is far more predictable. They are operating in a market where strategic allocation and precise macro
analysis matter more than ever before.

‍